Weather forecast: one had a name, the other didn’t. The two caused flooding but had different results

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Tens of thousands of our friends have woken up without electricity, downed trees around their homes, and in Tennessee there is heartbreaking devastation.

We are with you. Weather is our passion, but not destruction. We cry with everyone.

One of the storms was a tropical system, a hurricane, which eventually made landfall as a tropical storm.

Henri has been widely predicted, spoken and analyzed. But the nameless storm had the biggest impact.

It was a cluster of thunderstorms that did not move. They sat on an area for hours and left the destruction you have to see to believe.

Henri draws to a close, but not finished

Henri is now a tropical depression ALWAYS above New England and ALWAYS producing torrential rains from the mid-Atlantic to New England.

The rain is going to linger much of Monday because, well … I could easily outrun the storm – and I’m not a fast runner.

The low is only moving at 1 mph, so there is always the threat of further flooding on Monday. In fact, 33 million people are still on some sort of flood alert, from eastern Pennsylvania to New Hampshire.

We could see an additional 1 to 3 inches.

Over 50,000 customers are without power across New England, and I fear that number will increase even further.

Yes, the winds eased with this thunderstorm, but the rain is still falling. So be on the lookout for other trees that will fall until Monday.

Henri’s heaviest rain bands appeared to settle just over New York and New Jersey, producing some of the heaviest rain.

Rain flooded subways, blocked motorists and forced emergency services amid rising waters.

In fact, people were sent home soon after the star-studded concert in Central Park on Saturday night, after the bad weather of Henri who settled in the area.

Most of the rain has pushed out of New York and New Jersey, but there is still plenty of moisture with Henri to produce heavy rains from Long Island to New Hampshire on Monday.

What’s left of Henri is expected to pick up steam later Monday and leave New England on Tuesday.

Travel is expected to return to normal by Tuesday, and The Northern Trust golf tournament in Jersey City, New Jersey, should be able to resume, after being postponed due to Henri.

MORE ABOUT HENRI

How did the flooding in Tennessee even come about?

Flood damage was caused by inclement weather in Waverly, Tennessee on Sunday, August 22.  The downpours quickly turned the streams that flow behind backyards and through downtown Waverly into raging rapids.

As we see more images of destruction, devastation and sadness emerging from the flooding in the middle of Tennessee, we see how sometimes these nameless storms will be the storms we will never forget.

We have received so many questions as to how this could have happened.

The first strike was a wet July. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Nashville, more than normal precipitation fell in central Tennessee in July. Nashville had up to 8.74 inches of rain in July, “which was more than double the normal value of 4.16 inches,” the NWS told Nashville. This made the ground incredibly saturated and left little room for any additional rain to be absorbed into the ground.

Of course, to be fair, with over a foot of rain in 24 hours, flash floods would have been the result even if the ground was dry. However, the wet ground most likely made the flooding worse.

Saturday’s flooding was caused by multiple storms forming in the same area.

“We had established a stationary limit on the western part of central Tennessee which provided the perfect installation conditions, a constant training of [storms] on this area for several hours along this border, ”said meteorologist Mark Rose of NWS Nashville.

The precipitation totals were to die for. The town of McEwen received 17.02 inches of rain, which likely broke the state’s all-time 24-hour precipitation record.

That’s over four months of rain in a 24 hour period. The rain made rivers rise with tremendous speed, sweeping away cars and even houses.

These images show just how devastating flooding has been in Middle Tennessee.
The floods have left at least 21 dead and dozens more missing.

These storms are so difficult to predict, as it is nearly impossible to determine where the training storms will take place.

This area will benefit from a rain break for next week. “The precipitation forecast for the next 7 days shows almost nothing [for the area that flooded over the weekend]. It will be a relatively dry week ahead, ”Rose said.

This type of extreme precipitation rate is fueled by warmer temperatures, which can hold more water vapor in the atmosphere – about 7% more per 1 degree Celsius. More water vapor in the atmosphere makes more moisture available to fall as rain, thereby increasing precipitation rates.

Extreme rainfall rates like this, and deadly flash floods in Tennessee on Saturday, are increasingly common due to man-made global warming, scientists say.

A recent UN climate report stated, “The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased since the 1950s over most of the land.”

Saharan dust will give us short-term respite from hurricanes

As we say good riddance to Henri, we could actually take a tropical break in the short term.

“Tropical activity across the Atlantic certainly looks a lot calmer this week than last year,” CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “Although there are a few areas that we are monitoring, it will be difficult for them to develop as another large area of ​​Saharan dust has left Africa and will cross the Atlantic this week.”

Last week I spoke with Dr. Bowen Pan, who is in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, about the Saharan dust, and she said to me, “There might still be something popping up during the Saharan dust episode, but it is more likely that it will suppress the development of the hurricane.”

It is very typical during the summer months to have Saharan dust events. This will have positive and negative impacts, but for the development of hurricanes, dust tends to win the majority of the time.

“Hurricanes need relatively humid conditions and an unstable atmosphere,” Pan said.

“The Saharan air layer is a hot, dry layer located about 15,000 feet above sea level, which will introduce very dry and hot conditions into the North Atlantic, which will create very stable and unfavorable hurricane conditions. “

She says the only area to watch is right at the southern edge of the Saharan dust cover due to the contrasting conditions.

“The southern edge of the Saharan dust epidemic is associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where 70% of hurricanes are generated from this region. So if there is a Saharan dust epidemic, it more likely there will be a greater temperature contrast between the Saharan desert and the Sahel region which will increase convection activity in the ITCZ, ”said Pan.

Right now there is a short, very short-term pause in models, just a few days, before things start to spin again.
I … U.S) will also be back in your inbox for the next MAJOR storm … and the next … and the next.

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If you’re like me and count the days until Starbucks has the red cups and you’re ready to get your hands on anything that tastes like pumpkin spice, it might make you spit your coffee .

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CNN meteorologists Brandon Miller, Haley Brink and Judson Jones contributed to this newsletter


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