But the reality is, it’s not close enough yet – in fact, this year it’s not close at all.
“We still have two months left in what has been a very active season,” said National Hurricane Center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen. “While we wouldn’t expect to have as many named storms as in 2020, we are currently at 19 with the possibility of one or two more by the end of the week.”
If so, we finish all names on the current list and move on to the next list before the start of the month.
Wanda is the last name on the 2021 hurricane name list, which could be used by the end of the week.
Instead, they decided to go for a whole new set of names, if the original list ran out.
This season has been busy, without a doubt. But how does that compare to the busiest season of all time?
We decided to compare where we are so far this year to where we were on September 27 of last year.
- Number of named storms: 23 in 2020 vs 19 in 2021
- Number of hurricanes: 8 in 2020 vs 7 in 2021
- Number of named storms (tropical and hurricane) that made landfall in the United States: 8 in 2020 vs 8 in 2021
- Number of hurricanes affected in the United States: 4 in 2020 vs 2 in 2021
Around the same time last year, we were already in the Greek alphabet and four hurricanes had made landfall along the American coast.
Hanna and Isaias were both Category 1 storms, Sally was a Category 2 storm, and Laura was a Category 4 storm.
These are two Category 4 storms affecting the same state in consecutive years.
With more storms expected, the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall is quite plausible in the United States.
We still have about two months left in the season, and with the planned launch of La Niña, we might see a slight increase in October systems, just like we did last year.
October was a busy month last year. Four more hurricanes were produced in October, two of which made landfall in Louisiana.
Delta was a Category 2 storm that made landfall in Creole, Louisiana, very close to where Laura made landfall a few weeks earlier.
Zeta was a Category 3 storm that made landfall in Louisiana in October 2020 near Cocodrie.
As October approaches, we could have a similar dynamic to that of 2020.
La Niña is expected to develop in the coming weeks, making conditions more favorable for development in the Atlantic basin.
The moment of the installation of La Niña will be decisive. “We are currently in a La Niña watch. A lot will depend on its arrival,” says Feltgen.
So while it seems likely we’ll see more development in the coming weeks, the only unknown is how much, if any, will impact the US coast.
“Florida is particularly vulnerable in October, as a prominent development area is in the northwestern Caribbean Sea,” Feltgen said.
We usually see storms forming in October a little closer to home.
The tropics remain active with 4 systems to monitor
Right now the tropics are very active, which is typical for this time of year.
We have Hurricane Sam, which was a major Category 4 hurricane at its peak this weekend. Sam weakened some of them but remains a major Category 3 hurricane. Fortunately Sam will stay at sea and have no impact on the United States.
Peter has “run out of steam” in southeast Bermuda, but could redevelop over the next few days as he becomes more organized. Peter will not be a threat to the United States either.
Two areas that we should be watching are much further apart.
Two waves off the coast of Africa each have an 80% chance of developing within the next five days. Both systems are moving west at around 10 mph.
It is still far too early to know if these will have an impact on the United States, but they are both worth watching.
If these two systems are named, one will be Victor and the other Wanda.
More fires could start because of the winds
Rain has returned and temperatures are cooling down across much of the Pacific Northwest, helping firefighters on the ground tackle the Big Eight Fires ravaging Washington and Oregon.
In California, more than 10,000 firefighters are on the front lines, fighting 10 active wildfires.
Red flag warnings are currently in effect for parts of the Sierra Nevada in eastern California and western Nevada.
The winds will blow at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph. The fire danger will remain critical for these areas until Tuesday.
“Fire containment has increased dramatically in recent weeks, but gusts of 40 to 50 mph can quickly spread fires again,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
Santa Ana winds will also increase for southern California. This could mean more fires for the southern part of the state.
“Obviously, with so many fires big and small across California, the last thing needed will be the gusty winds that are expected to blow over the next few days,” Myers said.
“As the fall season begins, it’s important to remember that some of the biggest and most destructive forest fires happen during this time of year. Be prepared and don’t let your guard down, ”Cal Fire says.
The first full week of fall could feel anything but some
It’s the first full week of fall, but the traditional fall feel of crisp, chilly mornings with beautiful foliage on the trees may not be for everyone just yet.
Many states in the northeast and southeast enjoy a much-needed respite from the summer heat, with the vast majority of locations within just a few degrees of seasonal norms.
But when you travel west, especially in and around the Rocky Mountains, temperatures start to look more like summer than fall.
La Palma volcano continues to erupt
Check out these stunning images of the volcano on the Spanish Canary Island of La Palma.
The volcano is expected to continue to erupt over the next few days.
Huge waves crash along Lake Michigan
Despite warnings from the National Weather Service, giant waves crash into runners along Lake Michigan.